Poker Journal: 2011 FTP WSOP Fantasy Draft Tips And Tricks

With just one day to go before the official start to the 2011 World Series of Poker, many poker fans are scouring the web in search of last-minute tips to fill their rosters. This year’s draft is particularly tricky as many veteran players native to the U.S. are still feeling the after-effects of Black Friday and are unsure of their playing schedules.

I have to admit I enjoy playing the annual WSOP fantasy draft on Full Tilt and if truth be told, it has great promotional value since with a little luck, you can earn a substantial amount of Full Tilt Points usable for either their online store, or various satellites to big events. I haven’t had huge success in the past, but I usually come out with at least 2500 points for the minimal work I had put into it, not to mention a slew of freeroll entries. This year, however, I’ve put much more of an effort into research to avoid the silly mistakes I made last year.

Now, I certainly don’t consider myself a professional bookmaker and in reality, I’m only a casual poker player, but I did have one thing going for me when I chose my fantasy draft picks this year: I did my homework. I thought it would be worthwhile then to share some of the pearls of wisdom I have gathered while securing my choices.

First off, if you haven’t played the Full Tilt Fantasy WSOP before, here is how you can participate:

1) If you do not have a Full Tilt Poker account, click here to get started.
2) Load up your Full Tilt Poker client and click on the red cashier button at the top right hand corner
3) At the bottom of the Cashier box is a blue button entitled: My Promotions – click this
4) Your browser will now load up the promotions page – click the link labeled FANTASY WSOP 2011
5) Click on the pictured link on the left hand side labeled Go To Fantasy Poker

NOTE: These tips are for the casual fantasy draft player and will assume you will be predominantly choosing one team for the entire duration of the contest. Obviously, the better strategy would be to pick specialists for all 58 events but the amount of research involved is so enormous, I’ll be concentrating on one solid team with a few minor edits for specific high profile events.

Pro Schedules

If you read just one tip to help you out, this will be a gold mine. Although I personally can not stand the mindless chatter it creates, Twitter is an essential source for finding which players plan on attending WSOP and how many events they’ll play.

The number one mistake that the majority of fantasy pool players will make this year is choosing Eric Seidel (edit: Well, I guess now Ivey trumps Seidel in that department). “What?” you say. “How can I not pick the most profitable tournament player this year?” The answer is simple: Seidel already made a tweet saying his playing schedule will be drastically reduced and even recommends not to pick him. Over the course of 58 events, Seidel is not a good value. Instead, I would add him to specific events, like the Main Event, High Roller and The Poker Player’s Championship.

To help you start, here’s a list of recent tweet’s from various Full Tilt Pros:

Barry Boatman tweeted: My probable events 22, 28, 31, 34, 36, 39, 43, 45, 48, 50, 51, 54, 57, 58

Stephan Rapp: Playing events 10, 12, 14, 15, 17, 19, 20, 23, 26, 27, 29, 31, 32, 34

Taylor Caby tweeted:  “WSOP plans ~set. Vegas Jun 1-8, Jun 27-Jul 8.”

Rob Hollink‘s list of events: 3, 4, 6, 9, 12-15, 17-20, 22-24, 27-29, 31,32, 35, 36, 38, 39, 41-44, 47-52 & 56-58

Erik Seidel “Plz don’t pick me for any fantasy pools. I am not playing full sched + will be mostly playing my worst games”

Jonathan Karamalikis: “I’ll be playing practically all of the 1500′s and some of the 5ks (all no limit holdem events)”

Melanie Weisner is playing all the 2500 and under NLHE events, possibly the 2 5ks as well, and the main event.

Alessio Isaia has confirmed that he will be playing nearly every event this year.

James Akenhead‘s list of events: 4, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 31, 32, 34-36, 38-40, 42, 43, 45, 46, 48, 50, 54, 56, 58

Lee Watkinson intends to play 3,7-10,12,13,15,22,24,26,31,35,39,42,50,51,57 and Main

Simon Watt‘s schedule of events: 26, 28, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 43, 45, 48, 50, 54,56 & Main

Barny Boatman‘s probable events: 22,28,31,34,36,39,43,45,48,50,51,54,57,58

Beth Shak is scheduled to play  4, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 28, 31, 32, 35, 36, 38, 40, 45, 48, 53, 54 & 58

Marc Karam‘s schedule of events 8-10, 12,13,15,17-20,23,25,26,29,31,32,34,36,38,39,41,43-45,47-49,51,52,54,56,58

Filippo Candio will be playing every No Limit Holdem event from 2,5 K upwards.

John Racener will be playing almost all events unless they overlap.

 

Black Friday

With the affects of Black Friday still lingering, it undoubtedly will have an affect on this year’s WSOP. Many U.S. players have funds still tied up online and don’t have full access to their bankrolls while some were relying on sponsorship deals that no longer exist. The early predictions suggest that the overall playing fields will be much smaller then previous years. Bodog recently posted its Main Event attendance +/- at 5250 (over 2k lower then last year) with many already suggesting to take the under. So what does that mean for your picks? Try to limit the amount of American players to add to your roster and of those you do, concentrate on those with proven results and deep pockets.

 

Players To Generally Avoid

Many of the top names play just a handful of events at the WSOP but due to their notoriety, will still get picked time and time again. The strengths of your picks will rely not only on their consistency to cash in the money but also their frequency of play. However, it’s important to note that any of these names are still very viable (if not recommended) for the Main Event and other high profile events.

• Ted Forrest: Prior to 2009, Ted Forrest was a  solid pick with multiple yearly cashes but has not played many events in the last few years. No indication that will change this year.
• Abe Mosseri: Powerhouse performer for specific high profile events and did well at the WPT but doesn’t play enough tournaments to warrant a general pick.
• Patrik Antonius: Hugely popular choice due to his high profile status but likely will only play in a hand full of events.
• John Juanda: Normally, he is a staple for me in all events but he recently commented that he’ll be playing a largely reduced schedule this year
• Phil Hellmuth: What? How can you not chose Phil? Hello! All-Time Bracelet winner here! Maybe “avoid” is too strong a word here but the answer is simple: Hellmuth is a Hold’em specialist. All his bracelets are in Hold’em. Chose him for Hold’em events only
• Roland deWolfe: One of my sentimental favourites but he will miss the first two weeks of WSOP so do not add him to any early events.
• Chris Ferguson and Howard Lederer: As principal shareholders in FTP, it’s quite possible these two will have a very low profile at this years WSOP in light of Black Friday.
• Phil Ivey has recently confirmed that he will not be attending this year’s WSOP

 

The Stats That Matter

When choosing my team, I usually pick a mixture of proven veterans and hot, young blood itching to prove themselves. I generally avoid big repeat winners unless it’s part of a consistent trend. Here’s is a list of the most cashes made by players for the last three years, along with an all time list, that should help you narrow down your list dramatically:

2010 WSOP Most Cashes

1st		Allen Kessler	9
2nd		Chris Bjorin	8
2nd		Shawn Buchanan	8
4th		Emanuel Failla	7
4th		David Baker	7
4th		Christian Harder	7
4th		Dan Heimiller	7
4th		Patrick Pezzin	7
4th		Tad Jurgens	7
10th		Phil Ivey	6
10th		Neil Channing	6
10th		Justin Smith	6
10th		Frank Kassela	6
10th		George Dunst	6
10th		Anders Taylor	6
10th		Vitaly Lunkin	6
10th		Robert Mizrachi	6
10th		Annand Ramdin	6
10th		Alexander Kravchenko	6
10th		Sam Trickett	6
10th		Andy Black	6
10th		Amnon Filippi	6
10th		Michael Glasser	6

 

2009 Most Cashes

1st		Daniel Negreanu	9
2nd		Tony Cousineau	8
3rd		Fabrice Soulier	7
3rd		David Fox	7
3rd		Barry Greenstein	7
3rd		Darryll Fish	7
7th		Matthew Hawrilenko	6
7th		Chris Bjorin	6
7th		Vitaly Lunkin	6
7th		Nikolay Evdakov	6
7th		Phil Ivey	6
7th		Justin Bonomo	6
7th		Phil Hellmuth Jr	6
7th		Eugene Katchalov	6
7th		John Edward Monnette	6
7th		Alexander Kravchenko	6
7th		David Chiu	6
7th		Ville Wahlbeck	6
7th		John Brock Parker	6
7th		Jeff Lisandro	6

 

2008 Most Cashes

st		Nikolay Evdakov	10
2nd		Neil Channing	9
3rd		Daniel Negreanu	8
3rd		Chau Tu Giang	8
3rd		Alex Jacob	8
6th		Andy Bloch	7
6th		Chris Bjorin	7
6th		Rolf Slotboom	7
6th		Justin Cuong Van Tran	7
6th		Roland Israelashivili	7
6th		Fernando Jacobo	7
12th		John Juanda	6
12th		Chris Ferguson	6
12th		Allen Cunningham	6
12th		Phil Hellmuth Jr	6
12th		Alexander Kostritsyn	6
12th		Adam Levy	6
12th		Manelic Minaya	6
12th		Barry Greenstein	6

 

All Time Most Cashes

1st		Phil Hellmuth Jr	79
2nd		Men Nguyen	70
3rd		Chris Ferguson	64
4th		Erik Seidel	62
5th		Berry Johnston	59
6th		Chris Bjorin	58
6th		Humberto Brenes	58
6th		T.J. Cloutier	58
9th		Chau Tu Giang	56
10th		John Juanda	55
11th		John Anthony Cernuto	49
12th		Daniel Negreanu	48
12th		Mike Sexton	48
12th		Brent Carter	48
15th		Barry Greenstein	47
15th		Tony Cousineau	47
15th		Thor Hansen	47
18th		David Chiu	46
19th		Howard Lederer	44
19th		An Tran	44
19th		Dewey Tomko	44